Supreme Court Will Uphold Affordable Healthcare Act - Maybe!

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Monday's ruling on Arizona's immigration law may just tell the tale of what the Supreme Court has decided regarding the Affordable Healthcare Act, Obamacare.  Maybe!

The Supreme Court ruled with the federal government in the Arizona immigration law indicating that the State of Arizona went too far with their law.  The Court's opinion made it clear that the states have some say but ultimately, federal authority rules the day with immigration laws.  Federal authority is also a central issue in the Affordable Healthcare Act.  Both Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Anthony Kennedy voted to strike down much of the Arizona law. 

nytimes.com

Is it possible that both Roberts and Kennedy will vote to uphold the Affordable Healthcare Act?  It looks like more of a possibility given their vote on the immigration law.  Then you have the Court's continuing majority believing that each branch of government should be respected even when state laws have been enacted. 

The predominant similarity between the immigration law of Arizona and the Affordable Healthcare bill is federal authority.  The argument is slightly different of course but nevertheless, the overriding issue is the federal government's role.  Although the healthcare act now bears President Obama's name, one must remember that this law was hammered out and passed by Congress.  Ruling against Congress is not something the Supreme Court does frequently

It now seems unlikely that the Supreme Court will toss out the bill entirely.  The federally mandated everyone must buy insurance is the tricky piece and the one most suspect by those who believe the bill is unconstitutional.  The fact that both Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Kennedy both voted with the federal government on immigration gives those in favor of the law being sustained some hope. 

One must believe the justices who voted on the right and the left will maintain their stance with this healthcare act.  The moderate and more liberal justices only need one additional vote to uphold the law.  Although it is impossible to predict the Court's decision, this recent action must be promising for the Obama Administration and Democrats who favor the act.  It seems pretty clear that the vote will be a 5-4 vote.  Will it be Chief Justice Roberts or Justice Kennedy who tips the decision.

Either way, it is high drama for both political parties.  What if Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Anthony Kennedy both side with upholding the law?  A 6-3 vote would be considered a slam dunk shocking members of both political parties.  Both Republicans, Democrats, their leadership and the Administration already have their news releases and statements to the news media prepped and ready to go.  Most certainly, key members on both sides stand ready to speak and put their spin on the Court's decision. 

You can count on President Obama having his speeches ready to go.  Mitt Romney too.  It will  come down to which folder to pull out the right speech.  It is unlikely that public opinion swayed the Court's decision.  The majority of Americans are against the bill.  Most of the law's provisions haven't even kicked in yet which hurts it's stature in public awareness and understanding. 

The Court's decision will be unveiled on Thursday.  For most political junkies, Thursday's arrival can't come soon enough.