Is Mitt In Trouble? Time To Change Strategies? Is It Really Only About The Delegate Count?

politico.com

Losing Alabama and Mississippi and only walking away with Hawaii on Tuesday, one must wonder if Mitt Romney is in trouble?  Romney has been fond of using the "away game" phrase this last week describing his lukewarm reception in the southern states this primary season.  Primary campaigns are all about building support among the base of your party and the idea of the southern states being away games for Romney is problematic.  His message is obviously not connecting with the vast majority of Republican voters. 

According to all media reports, his campaign advertising in Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina and Tennessee was clearly negative.  The Super PAC's endorsing his candidacy have all been pounding away at Santorum and Gingrich in a negative fashion.  Is it time for Romney to consider a new strategy?  It seems clear that the negative messaging is not working.  His campaign is outspending Santorum, Gingrich and Paul combined but the results are dismal at best.  Maybe it would make more sense to spend those advertising dollars clarifying his positions on issues rather than attacking his opponents. 

Maybe it makes more sense trying to connect with the voter on the issues they are concerned about.  Maybe it makes more sense trying to connect with the evangelical and conservative voter on those issues where Romney's position is clearly in the conservative framework.  Romney is losing the conservative base to Santorum and Gingrich even though most voters seem to have the understanding that both Santorum and Gingrich are less likely to be able to defeat President Obama. 

Wins in the remaining primaries in March including Missouri, Puerto Rico, Illinois and Louisiana will not guarantee any forward momentum for Romney.  If Santorum should win three of the four contests, the momentum would be all his.  April's primaries shift to the north and could change the race in a remarkable fashion should Romney not find a more successful strategy.  Early polls show Santorum leading in his home state of Pennsylvania by almost 20 points. 

Romney's camp continues to speak of delegate counts and how the math does not work in Santorum or Gingrich's favor.  Splitting delegates state for state does not work for Romney either.  Remaining March primaries have 190 delegates up for grabs while April comes in at 329 and May, another 331.  It seems certain that Santorum will stay close now through May and that Gingrich may indeed stay in the race too.  Romney needs to find a new narrative to connect with the Republican base.   It is quite possible that neither Romney or Santorum will reach the magic number of delegates needed by the time the convention rolls around. 

A positive approach spelling out economic plans, job growth, debt reduction and tax reform  may be a better path forward for Romney rather than spending the money on bashing his opponents.  Romney's current strategy isn't working; it isn't connecting with the Republican base.  He needs to choose a new direction and he needs to do it soon.