Eve Of Michigan And Arizona Primaries, What Can We Expect?

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Rick Santorum's lead over Mitt Romney has all but evaporated based on polls released the last couple of days.  Not just in Michigan but across the landscape of America.  Santorum's center stage moment has come and gone.  His week or so in the spotlight was all about social issues and ideology and even the Republican base saw red warning flags.  Like so many of the others, Santorum's reign atop the polls has flamed out.  He now joins the likes of Rick Perry, Donald Trump, Michele Bachman, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.  Proud company for sure. 

The question is, "Has Santorum fallen so far where Romney will capture the win in the State of Michigan?"  No question that Romney will win Arizona.  The early voting in Arizona was solid in Romney's corner.  Michigan, however, is a slightly different animal.  Santorum raced ahead prior to last week's debate but his center stage performance and much of the discussion of ideology has softened his numbers.  One has to consider who led Santorum down the path of talking ideology once he captured center stage.  Did the media force the conversation?  Did his advisors encourage it?  Did he just go there because it is central to his beliefs? 

There is also the question of how Michigan voters view the entire auto industry bailout scenario.  Neither Santorum nor Romney supported the effort put forth by Bush and Obama.  In the end, it is only one issue among many for Michigan Republicans.  I suspect it will play no role in the primary vote.  However, one must believe it will be a negative for the Republican nominee come general election against President Obama.  By all accounts, the bailout was a win.    

Michigan is key for both Romney and Santorum.  A win by either candidate will shift the Republican race.  For Romney, it would shore up the frontrunner position again and put him on solid ground going into Super Tuesday.  For Santorum, it would be an upset win and once again, revitalize his candidacy and make Super Tuesday all the more important. 

One must not forget Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.  Neither candidate is expected to have much of an impact in Michigan or Arizona.  If the Republican party is lucky, Super Tuesday will diminish both of these candidates to the sidelines.  Either way, it would appear that President Obama will continue to benefit from a protracted primary season among the Republican candidates.  As they continue to sharpen their criticisms of each other and their plans and projected policies, it can only help President Obama.  The most recent polls show Obama with a commanding double-digit lead over Romney or Santorum   This will narrow as it always does once a candidate is chosen.    

One still has to believe that Romney will persevere and continue his march toward the nomination.  There is no indication there is another candidate willing to enter the race.  In the end, it would appear the Republican Party will be stuck with the next in line, Mitt Romney.